Rocket Mortgage Classic
Rocket Mortgage Classic
Jun 24, 2024Rocket Mortgage Classic
It was a steady if unspectacular week for us at the Travelers with the majority of out team performing solidly.
Unfortunately our big priced play Patrick Rodgers couldn’t quite do enough to hit the frame, ultimately finishing 16th so it was left to TPC River Highlands standing dish Patrick Cantlay to bring us a return on the week. Cantlay unfortunately couldn’t quite do enough to reel in the front runners but at tied fifth it was another strong week for him in Connecticut.
The event was won of course by Scottie Scheffler who continued his dominance of Signature events to bag his fifth of the year. Add that to his Masters title and that’s six wins for him by the end of June, a feat not achieved since the1960s by Arnold Palmer.
It wasn’t all plain sailing mind you for the worlds number one who was taken to a play off by Tom Kim after the Korean birdied the 72nd hole, however after the youngster found a plugged lie with his approach shot on the first play-off hole it was all over.
Onwards we go then and the Tour heads from the Travelers to Detroit in Michigan for the sixth edition of the Rocket Mortgage Classic, which debuted in 2019.
Not unsurprisingly on the back of two signature events and a Major the field takes a bit of a hit and Tom Kim who tees it up for the ninth straight week takes favouritism. Kim is then followed by last weeks 59 shooter Cameron Young, Min Woo Lee, Akshay Bhatia and Alex Noren.
COURSE
Detroit Golf Club plays to a Par 72 measuring at 7334 yards.
The greens are Poa Annua with an approximate 20% bentgrass mix.
There are two courses at Detroit Golf Club, the North and South, which were both designed by Donald Ross and completed by 1916. For this event the North Course is used.
The course is a fairly typical Ross design with undulating fairways and greens. Despite the defence of the greens the track has been there for the taking in the first five editions and I would expect more of the same this year.
With the course still being pretty new to us aside from looking at the previous leaderboards we have seen to date the logical leap is to look at form on other Donald Ross courses used on tour and these include the following;
East Lake – Tour Championship
Sedgefield G&CC – Wyndham Championship
Aronimink – 2018 BMW Championship
Plainfield – 2011 & 2015 Barclays
In addition Oak Hill the scene of last year’s PGA Championship and of course Pinehurst No 2 host of the recent US Open are also Ross designs.
HISTORY
Here’s a look at the final top ten from each of the first five editions.
2023
1 Rickie Fowler -24 [Play Off]
T2 C Morikawa, A Hadwin -24
T4 L Glover, T Moore, P Kuest -21
7 A Schenk -20
8 J Lower - -19
T9 A Noren, A Rai, S Jaeger, P Malnati, B Harman.
2022
1 Tony Finau – 26
T2 P Cantlay, Cam Young, T Pendrith – 21
5 S Jaeger
6 T Moore
7 T Kim
T8 JJ Spaun, W Clark
T10 C Hoffman, R Henley, M Wallace, S Stallings.
2021
1 Cameron Davis -18 [Play Off]
T2 Troy Merritt -18
T2 Joaquin Niemann -18
T4 Alex Noren -17
T4 Hank Lebioda -17
T6 Bubba Watson -16
T6 Brandon Hagy -16
T8 Mark Anderson -15
T8 Sungjae Im -15
T8 Kevin Kisner -15
T8 Seamus Power -15
2020
1 Bryson Dechambeau -23
2 Matthew Wolff -20
3 Kevin Kisner -18
T4 Ryan Armour -16
T4 Tyrrell Hatton -16
T4 Adam Hadwin -16
T4 Danny Willett -16
T8 Maverick McNealy -15
T8 Sepp Straka -15
T8 Webb Simpson -15
T8 Troy Merritt -15
2019
1 Nate Lashley -25
2 Doc Redman -19
T3 Wes Roach -18
T 3 Rory Sabbatini -18
T5 Joaquin Niemann -17
T5 Ted Potter Jnr -17
T5 Patrick Reed -17
T5 Brandt Snedeker -17
T5 Brian Stuard -17
T5 Cameron Tringale -17
So what do these leaderboards tell us? Well not unsurprisingly for someone who posted a six shot victory Lashley in 2019 was dominant in pretty much all statistical categories, finishing the week third from tee to green, sixth in approach play and second in putting, a pretty lethal combination!
Looking further down that leaderboard second place home Doc Redman is known for his strengths from tee to green and he allied that with a warm putter while three of those who finished tied for fifth Potter Jnr, Reed and Snedeker are all renowned for their short game wizardry giving us an early indication that a strong putter maybe the key ingredient here.
Looking then at the 2020 leaderboard and Bryson Dechambeau used a combination of big hitting and a hot putter to triumph leading the field in distance and strokes-gained-off-the-tee and ranking second in putting, while second and third place home Matthew Wolff and Kevin Kisner both performed strongly on the greens as well.
With Dechambeau and Wolff finishing first and second in 2020 clearly distance off the tee can be seen as beneficial however the success of the likes of Lashley, Kisner, Armour and Redman over the first two editions shows clearly that shorter hitters can flourish here.
Looking at the 2021 winner Davis and he allied his power off the tee, ranking tenth in distance on the week, to some solid approach play, ranking ninth in the department, however he was relatively less productive on the greens as he ranked 22nd for the week with the flatstick.
A look further down the leaderboard from 2021 again rubber stamps that big hitting can be a route to success here as big hitters Joaquin Niemann, Bubba Watson and Brandon Hagy all finished in the top six.
2022 winner Finau, who triumphed by five shots, produced a dominating performance ranking first from tee to green, second off the tee, sixth in approach and 14th in putting.
Meanwhile a closer look at the 2022 top ten, which as well as featuring Finau included Cam Young and Taylor Pendrith in a tie for second, again gave more mileage to the fact that distance off the tee is certainly an advantage here.
Finally to bring us up to date last years winner Fowler ranked second in approach play and 12th in putting for the week.
As mentioned earlier it may also pay this week to look at form on other Donald Ross courses and one thing that strikes me on that basis is that two players who tied for fifth place in 2019 Reed and Snedeker are former Wyndham Championship winners.
Furthermore Ryan Armour who was fourth here in 2020 has two top ten’s over recent years at the Wyndham, Kevin Kisner who was third here that same year took the title at Sedgefield last fall and Doc Redman has also figured prominently in both events.
2021 champion Davis has posted a 15th and 22nd in two appearances at the Wyndham. Finally last years Wyndham Champion Tom Kim finished eighth here while Taylor Moore backed up his sixth place here with a fifth at Sedgefield.
Meanwhile last years fourth place finisher here Lucas Glover went on to bag the Wyndham trophy a month or so later.
Away from Donald Ross tracks and whether coincidence or not, another link that had struck me prior to the 2020 edition is to the Greenbrier. This is because both Potter Jnr and Niemann who also tied for fifth in 2019 have been victorious there while Lashley finished third at the Greenbrier the year prior to his win here.
Furthermore Sabbatini, Stuard and Tringale who all finished top 5 here in 2019 have all posted top ten finishes at the Greenbrier in the past.
Looking at the 2020 leaderboard here while there was no links as obvious to this event Mark Hubbard played well here to finish 12th having finished 10th at the Greenbrier the previous fall so this does seem a link still worth pursuing.
Finally 2021 runner up Joaquin Niemann posted his maiden tour win at the Greenbrier.
Another track that seems to correlate well is Copperhead, the home of the Valspar. 2023 Valspar champion Taylor Moore has posted back to back top tens here the past two years, last years beaten play off protagonist here, Hadwin, bagged his lone PGA title at the Valspar, while this years Valspar champion Peter Malnati was ninth here last year, while the man he pipped to the title this year Cam Young was a runner up here in 2022.
From the point of view of form coming in and 2019 champion Lashley had finished no better than 28th in his previous eight starts, all be it that performance had come in his previous outing at Pebble Beach in the US Open.
Bryson Dechambeau meanwhile had come out of lockdown in blistering form finishing third, eighth and sixth in his previous three starts so a win was clearly telegraphed.
Davis, similarly to Lashley had produced nothing noteworthy leading in with his previous eight starts yielding a best of 25th however Finau of course triumphed here on the back of winning the previous week at the 3M Open.
Finally last years winner Fowler had been undoubtedly trending towards a come back win with four top thirteen finishes including three top tens in his previous four starts.
Finally low scoring here is clearly the order of the day with winning scores of 23- under and 25- under posted in the first two years. Things did toughen up slightly in 2021 with Davis triumphing on an 18- under total, however it was another birdie fest the last two years with Finau posting -26 and Fowler -24 before his play-off win.
WEATHER FORECAST
After the possibility of a storm on Tuesday we look set for a dry week as a whole with the exception of Saturday, which shows the potential for rain. Fingers crossed though there are no storms in the forecast for the tournament days.
Temperatures look set to sit in the high 70s/low 80s all week.
The wind looks to be around 10- 15mph+ through the week with Saturday the day it could have the most impact.
As I always say though this could all change!
PICKS
I have gone with five players this week as follows.
BEN GRIFFIN – 50/1 - 1pt E/W - 1/5 odds 1st 8
I will start what in all honesty is a fairly speculative team this week with Ben Griffin.
It’s been an up and down campaign for Ben so far as he has mixed missed cuts with some top 20s and a couple of top ten’s including one big runner up finish in Canada recently. As a result he currently sits 57th place in the Fedex Cup standings and in a good position to make the play offs.
Referencing that recent second place in Canada and it showed us yet again that Griffin is clearly at his best on shorter layouts where he can get hot with his greatest asset the putter.
Expanding on this further and one of Ben’s biggest performances to date came at Sedgefield CC in 2022 when before he even had officially taken his full card he posted a superb fourth place finish there. With the clear Donald Ross correlation between both events then through the likes of Armour, Kisner and Doc Redman to name but three over recent years, that gives us a great pointer.
Based on this effort at the Wyndham I actually sided with Griffin here last year even though he was in poor form at the time having made only one cut in seven since April. Although unfortunately Ben didn’t bring us any return that week it was notable that he played nicely to finish 33rd. His best finish in two months.
This year as I say has been much better for Griffin and I like the fact that he also notched an eye catching 17th at the correlating Valspar in the spring when again out of form on arrival.
Ben has struggled in the big league of the signature events at the Memorial and Travelers, which his second place in Canada got him in to, but this is much more his level and on a course that should suit I’ll take him to bounce back to form this week.
ADAM SCHENK – 70/1 – 1pt E/W – 1/5 odds 1st 10
Next up and I was pleasantly surprised to see the odds on Adam Schenk this week and am more than happy to get involved.
Schenk is one of those players who has been knocking on the door of a maiden PGA Tour win for the last couple of years and it would be absolutely no surprise to see him get over the line in a second tier event like this.
After a slowish start to the year Schenk played nicely at Sawgrass in March to finish 19th and then carried that form through to May with a bunch of solid performances including a fifth at the Valero Texas Open.
After missing the cut at the PGA Championship and withdrawing at Colonial though Adam has struggled in the ‘big boy’ events of late missing the cut at both the Memorial and US Open and finishing down the field at the Travelers. What was of huge encouragement though was to see him round off his week at TPC River Highlands with a 64 on Sunday.
Hopefully arriving in Detroit with a spring in his step then Adam returns to an event that he was seventh in last year. Add that to his second at the Correlating Valspar earlier in the season and we have all the right pointers we are looking for.
This is clearly a time of year that Schenk enjoys with next weeks John Deere also an event, which has served him well and I fully expect him to step back up this week as he ‘drops back down in company’.
CHANDLER PHILLIPS – 90 /1 – 1pt E/W – 1/5 odds 1st 8
When reviewing the field for this week one of the first names to jump out at me was that of Chandler Phillips so it is not surprising to see that he has already been well backed today.
The case for Phillips this week is a pretty straightforward one. Firstly and returning to the link with the Copperhead course and Chandler’s finest hour on tour to date came at the Valspar in the spring where he notched a third place finish.
Since that week and allowing for the various Signature events and Major’s, Phillips has only got to tee it up seven times on a solo basis over the past three months, however he has continued to perform solidly making five of those seven cuts while posting three top 20 finishes. Pertinently as well for form coming in to this week and he arrives on the back of 12th and tenth place finishes in his last two starts.
Seventeenth on tour in approach play Phillips gives himself plenty of ‘looks’ and if he can get the putter to co operate this week I can see him riding his recent strong form and producing a big performance.
CARL YUAN – 175/1 –1pt E/W - 1/5 odds 1st 10
Next I shall take a flyer on the enigma known as Carl Yuan.
You never quite know what you are going to get from Yuan and there is every possibility that this pick ends with a missed cut or even a withdrawal, something he has had two of this season including in his most recent outing in Canada.
As anyone who keeps an eye on Yuan knows though, in amongst the long runs of poor performances he can out of the blue pop up with a big week, something he has done twice already this season when fourth at the Sony Open and fifth at the Valspar more recently.
Looking at that latter effort in Tampa and allowing for the link I highlighted between the Copperhead track and here that immediately puts him on my radar for this week. Most interestingly then if we look back to last season and he popped up here with a 14th place finish on his debut appearance in the event. A finish that remained his best performance on tour until he posted two top ten’s in the Fall. It’s also worth noting that Carl sat much higher on the board through 54 holes that week before a lacklustre 71 on Sunday.
Ranked 13th on tour in Driving Distance it is not a huge surprise Carl played well here last year as, as noted earlier, length off the tee does seem to help here.
There’s no denying its been pretty grim stuff from Yuan since his fifth place at the Valspar however that result came out of nowhere on the back of a similar poor run of form. I’ll take a chance then that a return to Detroit this week where he performed well last year can spark him back in to life.
PIERCESON COODY – 200/1 – 1pt E/W – 1/5 odds 1st 8
Finally I shall wrap things up with another big hitter Pierceson Coody.
Much was expected of Coody as he arrived on the PGA Tour in 2024 on the back of a two win Korn Ferry Tour season however he struggled hugely out off the blocks making the weekend only once in Puerto Rico before then end of March where he managed all four days again at the Valero Texas Open.
Since then things have picked up a bit for Pierceson as he has made six of his past eight cuts with his biggest performance by far to date coming at Colonial where he was fifth. He then followed that up with a solid 35th place last time out in Canada.
Despite the recent uptick in form though the more heralded of the Coody twins still finds himself at 134th on the Fedex Cup standings and in need of a couple of big performances.
At 12th on tour in Driving Distance then it no doubt wont have escaped Pierceson’s attention that big hitters have gone well here before and I expect he has earmarked this as an event in, which he can go well. I’ll take him then to build on his recent upturn in form and produce a big performance here at big odds.